Betfair rugby trading strategy
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Results 1 to 16 of Thread Tools Show Printable Version Subscribe to this Thread… Display Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode. Trading Strategies Hi Guys Im quite new to trading and thought I would share my current strategies to get some feedback.
Lay The Draw AT mins I lay the Draw based on the following rules: I've also tried to lay the draw from HT when the score is still but hit a few losses on this so don't think it's a viable long term strategy.
My other main strategy is in games where I believe there to be 3 or more gaols I will back the Overs market at HT if the score is I back Over 1. Exit After 70 Mins if No Goal 2. Exit After a goal Sometimes leave for a few mins to see if a 2nd comes. Any comments on the two strategies would be much appreciated and I'm also looking into scalping etc if anyone has any tips. Not laughing, but lay the draw is an old and known strategy for many.
I appreciate that just wondered what people thought of my selection rules and if it was doomed to failure in the long run. Trading is not about learning a set of rules so as to ensure making a profit.
You make your own rules arising from your personal experiences. There are no shortcuts. What you have to ask yourself is what happens before a goal?
Trade 4 Income using Betfair Horses and Sports
Then after a goal and why? The answer will vary depending on who scored first. It's not a market I trade, but I've watched it. Knight Rider View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message.
Sports Trading Exposed - Betfair Trading - Betfair Trading Strategies
Originally Posted by stewkil. WhyAlwaysMe View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message. You could backtest your strategies to see if they do generate an edge. You can buy historical Betfair data from a company called Fracsoft for example. Well worth doing research before going into battle. There is nothing wrong with LTD, under certain market conditions.
Our friend Psychoff, was tweeting about using this strategy on a game recently. It can work, however, you need to be selective on which games that you use it on, and have other strategies too.
Any strategy can only work if there is value there. And that is the hard part knowing when and when not theres value. That comes with time.
The problem is many traders ,particularly noobs seem seem to think any idea which has the "strategy" tag next to it is a licence to print money. So they rush out and buy the ebook and the videos , follow the advice and its only 3 months down the line do they realise that the expectant run of green screens the seller advertised was just a scam.
Anyone can think up a strategy Of course it'll be a guaranteed winner if i could get odds of 3 every game but am i'm gonna get those odds everytime No i'm more likely to get odds which in the long run which will see me break even. The key is value and not blindly following some headline making, fancy named method an 8year old kid could make up. Concentrate on ways and methods of securing worthwhile value and building up an intuition for how you see a match and the odds developing, then you will eek out some profit.
And if you cant see any value in a game walk away. TaveMan View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message. BellaRaid View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message. Usually more than an hour before whatever sports match I pick the side I think will move and bet it for more than the intended risk. After the market moves I hedge or 'lay' the bet back to the acceptable risk in accordance with the 'Kelly Critereon', the formula based on risk, odds and edge, that is commonly agreed to be the optimum strategy for games of chance.
Not always, but usually I'll close out trades close to game time. The aim is to bet the movers early and hedge at SP for very nice value bets when the hedge kicks in and gives you a much better price than the original offer you took.
If I'm right more than I'm wrong, plus enough to cover the commission, the trades are almost guarunteed to be winners over even a small sample due to the value of prices you are effectively betting after the overbet - hedge I call this price leverage price compared to the SP which should be close to true odds. Of course the hard part is picking the direction of the market and getting your money in. As far as 'strategies' such as in the OP go, I think people will generally keep set-ups, signals, tips, systems, angles etc.
Figuring these things out is what makes a successful trader.
So long as you can get the money down at the bookies you don't even need Betunfair to execute that strategy. Understanding EV and odds construction is vital I think. Thomson View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message. Originally Posted by WhyAlwaysMe.
I thought 'kelly' is pretty entry level stuff and belongs in newbies. Just basic risk management. You're right though Thompson about the bookies. They're OK up to a certain point for recreational players.
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The ones without restrictions and the general stuff around are hard to catch. The bookies are a select few that have tight, sharp prices and decent liquidity so it's just a matter of shopping for a slightly better price between Betfair and the 'good' bookies. About the same on both the value and hedge sides of the trade traded at books and Betfair. Sometimes it's better to take a slightly worse price on Betfair than the bookies are offering because of the commission reduction as apposed to a straight bet at book and lay at Betfair.
The days of scalping two sides of a game simultaneously are over. I must say though it was not always like this re: It used to be much easier. Getting into horse trading and the type of thing GT and the stuff this forum is about is I feel the next step in my evolution as a trader. It began scalping small bonuses at two-bit books. And that's not cheating in any way.
Just a combination of new accounts, special offers, reloads and horse racing incentives such as happy hour and BOG's. It isn't glamorous in any way but it is good way to build up a pot if you are starting out. It helps a lot if you are based in the UK though. I'm sure the Bet72 guy could help anyone out if interested. Or do an internet search. You really can do it and it's a fair bit easier than trading IMO.
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